The ongoing trade tensions are continuously influencing market movements as trading commences on Thursday (April 10, 2025). As previously highlighted in the Macro Overview, US President Donald Trump has deferred the reciprocal policy for 90 days, resulting in countries that were previously facing high import tariffs now seeing a reduction to 10%.
Conversely, the import tariffs on products from China have been increased to 125%, up from 104%. This hike follows China’s decision to elevate tariffs on American products to 84% just yesterday.
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These sentiments will continue to impact market dynamics in tonight’s trading, alongside the release of crucial economic data from the United States. Here are the updates from Trading Central.
- US inflation (March/year-on-year) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 2.5% vs previous 2.8%
- Core inflation in the US (March/year-on-year) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 3% vs previous 3.1%
- US unemployment claims (April/5) at 19:30 WIB; forecast 226K vs previous 219K
GOLD
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) retreated from its earlier gains, having reached US$3,132.57 per troy ounce. The precious metal is buoyed by the escalating US-China trade conflict.
Trump’s actions could signify that the trade war is now primarily directed at China, reminiscent of the events during 2018-2019. This trade feud has slowed global economic growth, prompting an increased demand for Gold as a safe haven asset.
Gold is likely to receive a boost if inflation data (Consumer Price Index/CPI) and core inflation are released below expectations, particularly if the unemployment claims rise.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) declined to US$60.31 per barrel following a sharp rise in yesterday’s trading. Although Trump has postponed the reciprocal policy, the ongoing US-China trade tensions present a negative sentiment.
Historically, the trade conflicts of 2018-2019 have resulted in a slowdown in the global economy, which may reduce the demand for oil.
EURUSD
EURUSD increased at the start of the European trading session, reaching 1.10479. Compared to Wednesday’s close, EURUSD surged by 1.032 points (103.2 pips).
Trump’s postponement of the reciprocal policy has strengthened the US dollar, as concerns over an economic slowdown in the US seem to wane. However, the potential deferral of the reciprocal tariffs on the European Union might also contribute positively to the EURUSD. This positive sentiment could amplify if US economic data released tonight underperforms expectations.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rose to 1.28814 at the beginning of the European session, reflecting an increase of 608 points (60.8 pips) from Wednesday’s close. The rise in GBPUSD occurred following Trump’s delay of the reciprocal policy. The diminished risk of a global economic slowdown, coupled with the enduring strength of the UK economy, has propelled GBPUSD higher.
Similar to EURUSD, this currency pair may also benefit from positive sentiment if the US economic data tonight fails to meet forecasts.
USDJPY
USDJPY saw a decrease at the beginning of the European session, hitting a daily low of 146.146. Compared to Wednesday’s close, USDJPY plummeted by 1.562 points (156.2 pips).
After rising sharply yesterday, USDJPY reversed its course, indicating a tug-of-war between the US dollar and the yen, both regarded as safe haven assets. Nonetheless, with the intensification of the US-China trade dispute, USDJPY is likely to remain under pressure as the risk of an economic slowdown in the US looms large. The pressure on USDJPY will heighten if the US economic data comes in below expectations.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index dropped by 645 points to 18,705 at the start of the European trading session, after soaring by 2,124 points, or more than 12%, during Wednesday’s trading session. This daily surge marked the largest increase since January 2001.
Trump’s postponement of the reciprocal policy initially propelled the Nasdaq higher, but it now faces profit-taking activity. The ongoing escalation of the US-China trade war continues to serve as a negative sentiment for the stock index.
