US GDP and ECB Interest Rate Announcement, Gold Likely Approaches Record

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Update: Thursday, 30/01/2025 - 18:13 PM
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Market volatility surged at the beginning of the European trading session on Friday (January 30, 2025) in response to the Federal Reserve’s interest rate announcement early this morning along with various economic data from Europe. Germany reported negative growth in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter of 2025. Meanwhile, the Eurozone reported GDP for the same period at 0%, lower than Trading Central’s forecast of 0.3%.

Additionally, the upcoming announcement regarding the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rates and economic data from the United States this evening are expected to be significant market movers. According to Trading Central data:

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  • ECB interest rate announcement at 8:15 PM WIB; forecast is 2.75% compared to the previous 3%
  • US GDP advance at 8:30 PM WIB (Quarterly Annualized/Q42025); forecast is 3% compared to the previous 3.1%.
  • US unemployment claims at 8:30 PM WIB (January 2025); forecast is 228K compared to the previous 223K.

GOLD
In line with previous Macro Overview projections, Gold prices rose at the start of the European session, reaching US$ 2,779.19 per troy ounce. Compared to Wednesday’s closing, Gold increased by nearly US$ 20 or 200 pips.

Gold continues to rise despite the Fed maintaining interest rates and signaling that there may not be any cuts in the near future. The increased uncertainty about future economic conditions has driven up demand for Gold as a safe haven asset. Furthermore, President Donald Trump has once again pressured the Fed to lower interest rates.

Market participants are also monitoring the policies that President Trump will announce, particularly regarding tariff hikes on imports from Canada and Mexico, slated for February 1.

These sentiments are likely to influence Gold’s movements in tonight’s trading. If US economic data is worse than forecasted, Gold could gain additional positive sentiment.


OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) fell during the early European session, touching a low of US$ 72.01 per barrel, the lowest since January 2. Oil prices came under pressure after the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a significant rise in oil and gasoline inventories in the United States over the week.

If US GDP data is lower than the forecast tonight, Oil could face further downward pressure.


EURUSD
The poor GDP data from Germany and the Eurozone caused EURUSD to drop to 1.03958 during early European trading. Attention tonight is focused on the ECB’s interest rate announcement, which is predicted to involve a cut.

Pressure on EURUSD could intensify if the ECB cuts rates as expected and indicates that further cuts may occur soon.


GBPUSD
GBPUSD dropped during the early European session, reaching a daily low of 1.24255. GBPUSD followed the trend of EURUSD, meaning if EURUSD experiences more pressure tonight, GBPUSD could likely fall further. This is largely because, if the ECB aggressively cuts rates, the Bank of England may also follow suit given the weak economic conditions in the UK.


USDJPY
USDJPY declined at the start of the European session, hitting a daily low of 154.280. This movement indicates weakness in the US dollar, which could be further exacerbated if US economic data is released worse than forecasted.


Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose in early European trading, reaching a daily high of 21,708. Earnings reports from major tech companies are drawing attention following the market turbulence caused by DeepSeek.

Meta Platforms delivered earnings results that exceeded expectations, boosting its stock and lifting Nasdaq’s performance. Market participants are now awaiting reports from Apple, which could significantly impact the index as the iPhone manufacturer is the largest company by market capitalization in the Nasdaq.


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