On Wednesday evening, U.S. President Donald Trump signed the government budget bill, marking the official end of the shutdown that began on October 1. This shutdown has been the longest in U.S. history, affecting nearly 800,000 government employees who were furloughed during this period.
With the shutdown coming to a close, gold prices, which had previously declined, surged back above $4,200 per troy ounce, nearing a daily high of $4,209 per troy ounce.
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The expectation that the shutdown would soon conclude emerged earlier this week when the Senate approved a temporary budget bill, which was then sent to the House of Representatives for a vote. The House ultimately agreed to the bill, allowing it to be forwarded to President Trump, who signed it into law.
Gold prices have increased sharply since the beginning of last week, as the reopening of the government allows for the release of crucial economic data, including labor market statistics (notably the non-farm payrolls/NFP). This availability of data provides the Federal Reserve with a clearer understanding of the current economic landscape in the U.S.
Market participants are also considering various labor market indicators from the private sector, which show signs of weakening. Challenger, Gray & Christmas Inc. reported last week that there were job cuts totaling 150,000 in October, the largest in two decades. Additionally, Automated Data Processing Inc. (ADP) revealed on Tuesday that 11,000 layoffs occurred in the last week of October.
This data led market participants to expect that upcoming NFP figures will also reflect labor market weaknesses. Such conditions enhance the possibility that the Federal Reserve may opt to lower interest rates in December.
However, White House officials early this morning stated that the NFP and inflation (consumer price index/CPI) data for October are unlikely to be released due to the government shutdown, which has now stretched beyond six weeks. The White House indicated that the shutdown has severely disrupted government data collection, reducing the likelihood of any economic reports for October.
Consequently, the Federal Reserve may only gain insights into labor market conditions and inflation figures for November, which will be available in December. This situation raises questions about whether this data will be sufficient for the Fed to make a decision on interest rate cuts. As a result, the market remains enveloped in uncertainty regarding the Fed’s interest rates, which will likely keep gold prices volatile.
