The release of the European purchasing managers’ index (PMI) data triggered significant volatility in the financial markets during trading on Thursday (August 21, 2025). Tonight, American economic data is set to be the potential mover in the markets.
Here are the data points from Trading Central:
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- U.S. unemployment claims (Aug/16) at 7:30 PM WIB; forecast 225K vs. previous 224K
- Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index (Aug) at 7:30 PM WIB; forecast 9 vs. previous 15.9
- U.S. manufacturing PMI (Aug) at 8:45 PM WIB; forecast 49.7 vs. previous 49.8
- U.S. services PMI (Aug) at 8:45 PM WIB; forecast 53 vs. previous 55.1
In addition to that data, the Jackson Hole Symposium will initiate today in the United States, lasting for three days, which also draws attention.
This significant event has the potential to cause major movements, as several central bank governors, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell, will be speaking. The market will be on the lookout for indications regarding the Fed’s long-term interest rate outlook. Powell is scheduled to speak on Friday.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell to $3,334.28 per troy ounce before trimming those declines at the beginning of the European session.
As mentioned in a previous Macro Overview, gold received positive sentiment after U.S. President Donald Trump urged Federal Reserve Board member Lisa Cook to resign amid allegations of mortgage fraud. This reflects Trump’s efforts to position more dovish figures at the Fed.
Positive sentiment for gold could increase if the U.S. economic data released tonight comes in worse than the forecast.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) continued to climb at the beginning of the European session, reaching a daily high of $63.42 per barrel.
Previously, oil hit its lowest level in 2.5 months, with that low prompting a buying action. Furthermore, data from the U.S. showed a decline in oil stocks by 6 million barrels over the week, adding positive sentiment for oil.
These two factors will remain drivers for oil movements tonight.
EURUSD
EURUSD reversed upward at the start of the European session, reaching a daily high of 1.16629. This currency pair rebounded after Germany released a manufacturing PMI of 49.9 for August, significantly higher than the Trading Central forecast of 48.7 and the previous month’s 49.1.
PMI uses 50 as the benchmark. Readings below that indicate contraction, while above denotes expansion. The German manufacturing sector, which is on the brink of expansion, has imparted positive sentiment to EURUSD because the 49.9 reading is the highest in 38 months. This could signal an improvement in the German economy.
This development has boosted positive sentiment for EURUSD, which may be further enhanced if tonight’s U.S. economic data comes in worse than expected.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD also saw an upward turn at the beginning of the European trading session, touching a daily high of 1.34826. The currency pair rose after the U.K.’s services PMI was reported at 53.6, exceeding the forecast of 51.7 and last month’s 51.8.
The increasing expansion in the services sector adds positive sentiment for GBPUSD because the services sector contributes 80% to U.K. economic growth. Rising expansion indicates that the U.K. economy remains robust. Additionally, inflation within the services sector is quite high in the U.K., and increased expansion may continue to keep inflation elevated.
This situation boosts market confidence that the Bank of England (BoE) will not reduce interest rates in the near term, further benefiting GBPUSD sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY rose to 147.793 at the beginning of the European session, up 557 points (55.7 pips) from Wednesday’s closing. The dollar remains strong against the yen as market participants have not observed any strong signals from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to raise interest rates soon.
However, USDJPY could face pressure again if tonight’s U.S. economic data is released worse than the forecast.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq index has been trading within a narrow range of 23,267 – 23,368 leading up to the start of the European session. The Nasdaq has fallen for six consecutive days due to profit-taking actions and declining technology stocks.
There is potential for profit-taking on the Nasdaq to continue tonight if the U.S. economic data released is worse than the forecast.
