The United States dollar has regained its strength as of the early trading session in Europe on Thursday (July 17, 2025). Yesterday, the dollar faced some pressure after rumors circulated about President Trump potentially dismissing Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
However, shortly thereafter, Trump refuted these claims, allowing the US dollar to resume its upward trend. Following this confirmation, market participants shifted their focus back to upcoming economic data that could influence the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions in the near future.
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Below are some US economic data releases scheduled for 19:30 WIB, as reported by Trading Central:
- Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (June); forecast -3 vs previous -4
- US Retail Sales (month-on-month/June); forecast 0.2% vs previous -0.9%
- US Retail Sales (year-on-year/June); forecast 3.6% vs previous 3.3%
- Initial Jobless Claims (July/12); forecast 230K vs previous 227K
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell during the early European trading session, reaching a daily low of $3,324.70 per troy ounce. Compared to Wednesday’s closing price, gold decreased by $22.53 or 225.3 pips.
The decline in gold prices is attributed to market focus on potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve following the accelerated US inflation data. This leads to a cautious stance from the Fed regarding interest rate reductions.
Tonight’s economic data could trigger significant movements in the gold market. Observing the forecast above, if the actual figures surprise positively, there is a chance gold prices may face further downward pressure this evening.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) have been moving sideways in the range of $66.27 – $66.97 per barrel as the European trading session begins. The oil market is experiencing volatility, as President Trump postponed sanctions against buyers of Russian crude oil, creating negative sentiment, while US oil inventories declined by 3.9 million barrels last week, providing a positive counterbalance.
This sentiment will continue to impact oil trading this evening, with negative sentiment likely to prevail due to the high uncertainty surrounding the global economic outlook.
EURUSD
EURUSD decreased at the start of the European trading session, hitting a daily low of 1.15729. Compared to Wednesday’s close, EURUSD fell by 660 points (66 pips), reversing the gains of the previous day.
Trump’s confirmation that he will not dismiss Powell has allowed the US dollar to strengthen once more, drawing attention back to the trade negotiations between the United States and the European Union. The lack of positive developments in these negotiations continues to cast a shadow over the EURUSD, which could face further pressure if tonight’s US economic data exceeds the forecast.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD trimmed losses in early European trading after touching a daily low of 1.33738. Data released from the UK indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.7% in May from 4.6% the previous month.
This data added negative sentiment for GBPUSD, suggesting that if the US economic figures tonight are stronger than the forecast, this currency pair could face additional downward pressure.
USDJPY
USDJPY climbed more than 1,000 points (100 pips) to 148.833 in early European trading following a drop yesterday.
Attention has once again turned to the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, which may proceed with caution regarding interest rate cuts. If tonight’s US data is better than the forecast, it would reinforce this outlook, maintaining a positive sentiment for USDJPY.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose in early European trading, reaching a daily high of 23,150. It is nearing its all-time high of 23,221, achieved last Tuesday.
Tonight’s US economic data could sway the Nasdaq. Actual figures that outperform the forecast, especially in retail sales, may provide a positive boost to the Nasdaq. Strong retail sales growth could signal excellent earnings for companies.
