The proposed legislation for tax cuts and government spending in the United States, commonly referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, remains a primary focus. As of now, the House of Representatives has yet to conduct a vote on whether to approve or reject the bill revised by the Senate.
President Donald Trump has expressed his frustration towards the Republican Party for not moving forward with this easy yes vote, especially with the approaching deadline he desires before Independence Day on July 4. Some Republican members continue to critique and oppose this legislation, which has created a volatile environment in the financial markets.
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This sentiment is likely to impact market movements on Thursday (July 3, 2025), alongside the expected release of the ADP employment report, which indicates a weakening job market. Data released yesterday showed a reduction of 33,000 jobs in June, falling short of the anticipated absorption of 90,000 jobs according to Trading Central.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) have experienced a three-day rise, closing on Wednesday at $3,356.75 per troy ounce. Compared to the previous close on Tuesday, gold rose by more than $18 or 180 pips.
This increase is attributed to a surge in demand for safe havens in response to uncertainties stemming from the tax cut and spending legislation in the United States. Furthermore, the weakening job market is amplifying the chances for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice this year.
This sentiment will continue to influence gold’s movement during the European trading session.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) surged nearly $2 to $67.50 per barrel during Wednesday’s trading after Iran refused to cooperate with the United Nations nuclear watchdog.
Iran claims that the agency is biased towards Western nations. This development has heightened tensions in the Middle East and raised concerns over potential oil supply disruptions. This sentiment is expected to continue affecting oil prices in the European trading session.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair closed slightly lower at 1.17959 after briefly falling to 1.17469 due to profit-taking activities.
The ADP report showing a weakening job market in the U.S. has put pressure on the dollar, allowing EURUSD to rebound. This data increases the likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, which may continue the trend of rate reductions. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is approaching the end of its current policies, providing positive sentiment for EURUSD during the European trading session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD fell by 1.117 points (111.7 pips) to 1.36287 during yesterday’s trading, dragged down by selling pressure on bonds due to uncertainty surrounding the future of UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves and her position.
Nevertheless, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has voiced full support for Reeves, potentially opening up opportunities for a rebound for GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY pulled back on gains and closed on Wednesday at 143.596. Compared to Tuesday’s closing, it increased by 264 points (26.4 pips). The recent ADP data has heightened the expectations of a rate cut by the Fed in September, creating negative sentiment for the U.S. dollar.
Conversely, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is anticipated to raise rates again, which could further pressure USDJPY.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose by 165 points to 22,856 during Wednesday’s trading, approaching its all-time high of 22,931 achieved earlier in the week.
The increased probability of the Fed cutting rates in September is adding positive sentiment to the Nasdaq. Additionally, further optimism grew after President Trump announced a trade agreement with Vietnam.
These two factors are likely to support Nasdaq’s movement during the European trading session.
