The market’s movement was generally stable at the beginning of last week, but a significant change occurred on Tuesday morning (February 18, 2025).
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) increased by $16.89 or 168.9 pips at the start of the week and continued rising another 143.9 pips to reach $2,913.34 per troy ounce by this afternoon. This surge in gold prices is driven by sentiments from global central banks, which are anticipated to aggressively increase their gold purchases as foreign reserves this year. The economic outlook remains uncertain, particularly with the risk of trade wars looming.
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According to data released earlier this month by the World Gold Council, the gold demand in 2024 reached a record high of 4,974 tons. This strong demand is fueled not only by central bank purchases but also by a surge in investments from individual investors in this precious metal.
This trend is expected to persist this year, providing a positive sentiment for gold.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) rose by $0.85 to $71.38 per barrel on Monday after dropping to $70.12 per barrel, which marked a seven-week low. This dip may lead to a rebound in oil prices due to potential short covering activities.
However, the sentiment for oil remains negative in light of the ongoing prospects for the conclusion of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Should that occur, oil supplies from Russia could flood the market again, putting downward pressure on prices.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair experienced volatility at the week’s start before closing at 1.04807. Compared to Friday’s close, this represents a drop of 103 points (10.3 pips).
Today, EURUSD has further dipped to 1.04549, likely due to profit-taking after its sharp rise last week. During the European session, the release of German consumer sentiment data at 5:00 PM (WIB) could influence the movement of EURUSD.
Forecast from Trading Central indicates that the economic sentiment for this month is at 15, up from last month’s 10.3. A release of data exceeding the forecast could positively impact EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD surged 367 points (36.7 pips) to 1.26218 at the start of last week, reaching a two-month high. Similar to EURUSD, this currency pair is likely experiencing profit-taking today, dropping to 1.25927.
During the European session, releasing UK labor market data could significantly affect GBPUSD’s movement. The forecast in Trading Central predicts an employment change of -130K for December, down from the previous month’s increase of 36K, while the unemployment rate remains steady at 4.4%.
Additionally, average wages for the three months up to December are anticipated to grow by 5.9% compared to the same period the previous year, an increase from the earlier figure of 5.6%.
These data could be considered mixed, but if average wages are reported higher than the forecast, GBPUSD could receive a positive sentiment.
USDJPY
USDJPY dropped 830 points (83 pips) to 151.466 at the beginning of last week. The yen strengthened after the release of fourth-quarter 2024 economic growth data exceeded the forecast from Trading Central, enhancing the likelihood of a near-term interest rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
This sentiment has caused USDJPY to fall sharply for three consecutive days, but today it rebounded to 152.223, likely due to short covering activities.
With favorable sentiment still surrounding the yen, there is potential for USDJPY to face downward pressure during the European session.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index set a new all-time high of 22,280 at the beginning of last week before trimming gains and closing at 22,235.
As of this afternoon, Nasdaq continues to hover near its record peak, supported by the positive sentiment regarding the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, indicating that another record high might be achieved during the European trading session.
