The price of gold has been on an upward trajectory, showing a remarkable increase of 27% throughout 2024, fueled by the easing of monetary policies in the US, geopolitical tensions, and significant purchases by central banks. Meanwhile, oil prices have also surged sharply following reports of declining US crude oil stockpiles, further supporting the commodity. Both of these assets demonstrate positive sentiment despite ongoing global economic challenges.
金子
Gold prices (XAUUSD) have continued to rise, achieving a noteworthy 27% gain thus far in 2024, making it the best annual performance since 2010. This upward momentum continued on Thursday with three consecutive days of increases, driven by the US’s monetary easing, geopolitical strife, and record-high purchases of gold by central banks. These conditions reflect an optimistic view towards precious metals as a safe haven asset.
Gold may receive further support from anticipated US unemployment claims data, which is projected to rise from the previous figure of 219K to 222K. This increase signifies potential strains in the labor market and suggests a weakening US economy, which could bolster gold’s performance if released as expected.
油
In alignment with the macro overview for Europe, oil prices surged during the European trading session, reaching a new daily high of $72.77. This increase is backed by a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a decrease in US crude oil inventories by 1.442 million barrels last week. Although this figure is lower than the previous decline of 3.2 million barrels, it still provides support for oil prices.
Price volatility for oil remains elevated and is likely to increase due to additional factors such as declining inventories and escalating geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict.
歐元兌美元
As per the predicted macro overview for Europe, the EURUSD pair has declined and remains under selling pressure due to the US dollar maintaining its strength. The dollar’s rise is supported by the Federal Reserve’s guidance indicating fewer interest rate cuts in 2025, enhancing its appeal compared to the Euro.
Market participants also anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will gradually cut interest rates by 25 basis points in each meeting until mid-2025. This dovish stance from the ECB adds further pressure on the Euro in US trading tonight.
英鎊兌美元
The GBPUSD pair has seen a sharp decline, consistent with the predictions from the macro overview for Europe, marking a new low at 1.2467. The pair continues to be pressured by the Bank of England (BoE), which is expected to implement four interest rate cuts throughout the year. The BoE’s dovish approach further weighs down the Pound in the market.
The US dollar remains close to its highest level in two years, bolstered by expectations that the Federal Reserve will only lower interest rates in smaller increments than previously forecasted. This has contributed to the weakening of GBPUSD heading into the US trading session tonight, as market players await US labor market data on Thursday for new insights into Fed monetary policy.
美元日圓
During the European session, the USDJPY pair showed signs of weakness, trading around 156.940. This decline is attributed to rising optimism surrounding the Japanese Yen, in anticipation of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) in January due to last week’s solid Tokyo inflation data.
Projected US unemployment claims, previously recorded at 219K, are expected to rise to 222K, indicating potential additional pressure in the US labor market. This forecast could create negative sentiment for the US dollar, likely impacting the USDJPY pair during the evening trading session.
Should the actual data meet or exceed 222K, it could worsen perceptions about the strength of the US labor market. Such a situation is likely to bolster the Japanese Yen as a safe haven asset, reinforcing the trend of weakening USDJPY in the short term.
納斯達克
The Nasdaq has shown slight gains in the afternoon of the European session, driven by market optimism that continues to propel a 20% yearly rise for two consecutive years. This trend may persist into the US evening session.
Despite a downturn in the final session of 2024, the markets still displayed solid performance. The S&P 500 soared by 23% last year, while the Dow Jones increased by nearly 13%. The Nasdaq led the way with a 29% rise, fueled by excitement over artificial intelligence and expectations for further interest rate reductions.
