The recent release of economic data from the United States (US) earlier this week has intensified speculation about a weakening economy.
Retail sales for February increased by 3.1% year-on-year (YoY), which was lower than the forecast of 3.5% YoY by Trading Central and down from the previous month’s 4.2% YoY growth. Additional data revealed that the manufacturing activity index for the New York region plunged to -20 this month, significantly lower than the forecast of 2 and the February release of 5.7.
Khuyến khích
Khuyến khích
Khuyến khích
Khuyến khích
This sentiment is likely to influence market movements during the European trading session on Tuesday (March 18, 2025). Furthermore, according to Trading Central, several economic data points are set to be released later today.
- German consumer sentiment (March) at 5:00 PM WIB; forecasted to be 45 versus the previous figure of 26
- Eurozone consumer sentiment (March) at 5:00 PM WIB; forecasted to be 38 compared to the previous 24.2
VÀNG
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) rose by more than US$15 earlier in the week and continued to climb an additional US$17 today, reaching US$3,017.14 per troy ounce, marking an all-time high.
The speculation around a slowdown in the US economy has caused market players to worry that the global economy may also be dragged down, which in turn has spurred increased demand for Gold as a safe haven asset. Additionally, the economic slowdown in the US opens up greater possibilities for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, adding positive sentiment for Gold.
These factors are expected to continue influencing Gold prices during the European trading session.
DẦU
Oil prices (CLS10) climbed to US$67.44 per troy ounce in Monday’s trading. Today, Oil further increased to US$67.83 per barrel. The rise in Oil prices is likely attributed to the weakening of the US dollar.
However, with the US economy predicted to weaken, there is a risk that Oil demand may decline. This negative sentiment is likely to loom over Oil trading during the European session.
EURUSD
The pressure on the US dollar has led to a rise in EURUSD by 413 points (41.3 pips), reaching 1.09213 at the beginning of the week. EURUSD is receiving positive sentiment following the German parliamentary party’s agreement on fiscal reforms to be implemented by Friedrich Merz, who is set to be inaugurated as Chancellor. These fiscal reforms are expected to stimulate economic growth in Germany and positively impact the European economy.
If today’s consumer sentiment data from Germany is released higher than the forecast, there is potential for EURUSD to gain additional positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD rose by 541 points (54.1 pips) to 1.29899 during the early trading of the week, reaching its highest level since November 7th. Market focus is on the upcoming monetary policy announcement from the Bank of England (BoE) this week.
The current strength of the UK economy suggests that the BoE may adopt a slightly hawkish stance, which would provide a positive sentiment boost for GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY increased by 577 points (57.7 pips) to 149.281 on Monday after previously dropping to 148.221. This movement indicates that market participants are awaiting the monetary policy announcement from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) scheduled for Wednesday.
Market players will be looking for signals regarding when interest rates may be raised again. Until the announcement, USDJPY is expected to remain volatile during the European trading session. Given the current relatively low position of USDJPY, the potential for upward push could be stronger.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index rose by 166 points to 19,830 at the start of trading on Monday. However, by the afternoon, it reversed course, falling to 19,711, indicating that negative sentiment still looms over the Nasdaq.
This negativity is driven by speculation of an economic slowdown in the United States, as well as the increasing risks of a trade war.
