The price of Gold (XAU/USD) has reached an unprecedented high of $3,085 amidst global uncertainty, fueled by concerns over U.S. trade policies and expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. The stability of PCE data at 2.5% further pressures the U.S. Dollar, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Tonight’s price movements will hinge on how the market reacts to the PCE data and U.S. bond yields.
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- U.S. PCE inflation data; forecast 2.5% vs previous estimate 2.5%
VÀNG
Gold (XAU/USD) surged to an all-time high of approximately $3,085 during the European session on Friday, driven by a rising demand for safe-haven assets amid global uncertainties. Market apprehensions regarding the import tariffs on automobiles announced by U.S. President Donald Trump and potential retaliatory tariffs next week are pressuring equity markets, directing investments into Gold as a hedge.
Anticipations of a Fed interest rate reduction are also contributing to the rise in Gold, given concerns that U.S. trade policies could dampen economic growth. Meanwhile, U.S. PCE inflation data is expected to remain stable at 2.5% year-over-year, consistent with prior data. The U.S. Dollar briefly strengthened ahead of the release of this data but failed to stem Gold’s bullish momentum. Movements in tonight’s U.S. session will likely be influenced by market reactions to the PCE data and fluctuations in U.S. bond yields, which could determine if Gold maintains its new high or experiences a technical correction.
DẦU
Oil prices continue to trade at elevated levels during the European session, reaching a daily high of $70.08. The sentiment driving Oil’s rise remains unchanged, supported by a 25% secondary tariff imposed by President Trump on countries purchasing oil and gas from Venezuela, effective April 2. With the U.S. projected to be a key importer of Venezuelan oil valued at $5.6 billion in 2024, this policy tightens the global energy market and raises supply disruption concerns.
In addition to tariff factors, the decline in U.S. crude oil inventories also provides further support for Oil prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a decrease of 3.341 million barrels in U.S. crude inventories for the week ending March 21, significantly surpassing the anticipated reduction of 1.6 million barrels. This positive combination could support a rise in Oil prices tonight.
EURUSD
The EURUSD currency pair is attempting to maintain its upward trajectory from a three-week low around 1.0730, though prices still trade with a negative bias below the 1.0800 mark during Friday’s European session. The decline has not yet displayed clear bearish convictions as investors await the upcoming U.S. inflation data (PCE), anticipated to signal the Fed’s future monetary policy direction.
The PCE inflation data, a key inflation indicator, will significantly influence expectations for interest rate cuts and movements of the U.S. Dollar in the near term, ultimately determining the future trajectory of the EURUSD pair.
GBPUSD
The British Pound has gained strength following surprising positive retail sales data for February, boosting confidence in the UK economy. Additionally, data indicates that the UK economy grew robustly by 1.5% in the last quarter of 2024, signaling a strong recovery and optimistic prospects ahead. This surge provides positive sentiment for GBP, which continues to show stable movements.
However, investors are now focusing on the forthcoming U.S. PCE inflation data and the potential impact of tariffs announced by President Trump. These developments could influence global market dynamics, particularly concerning the USD, affecting the GBPUSD currency pair. As uncertainty rises, the market will closely monitor how U.S. inflation data and tariff policies impact global markets.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair declined during the European session, primarily due to the JPY’s strengthening following positive Tokyo consumer inflation data, helping the yen recover from a four-week low against the U.S. Dollar. The market’s uncertainty and belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will continue raising interest rates bolster the yen as a safe-haven currency. Despite concerns that auto tariffs from President Trump could impact Japan’s exports, JPY buyers remain unfazed.
Meanwhile, increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve (the Fed) will cut interest rates amid worries over U.S. economic slowdown create a divergence from the more hawkish stance of the BoJ. However, a slight uptick in the U.S. Dollar (USD) after a previous decline may limit further downside for the USDJPY pair ahead of the PCE inflation data release.
NASDAQ
The Nasdaq continues to face pressure during European trading, influenced by the uncertainty surrounding tariffs announced by President Trump, impacting market sentiment. Investors are worried about signs of weakening consumer sentiment, heightening the risk of economic slowdown. Market focus will turn towards policy developments expected to bring clarity next week, although volatility is anticipated to remain high.
