The market volatility has surged at the beginning of the European trading session on Friday (January 10, 2025), ahead of the release of the U.S. labor market data, including non-farm payrolls (NFP) later tonight.
Here are the forecasts from Trading Central:
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Non-farm payrolls at 20:30 WIB: прогноз 140K compared to the previous 227K
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Average hourly wages (month-on-month/MoM) at 20:30 WIB: прогноз 0.3% versus the prior 0.4%
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Unemployment rate at 20:30 WIB: прогноз 4.3% versus the previous 4.2%
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U.S. consumer sentiment at 22:00 WIB: прогноз 75 compared to last month’s 74
ЗОЛОТО
The price of Gold (XAUUSD) climbed during the early European trading session, reaching $2,682.57 per troy ounce, marking the highest level in a month.
Reportedly, President-elect Donald Trump is contemplating using emergency measures to impose tariff increases, which has contributed positively to Gold. This action could trigger a trade war in the near future, thus favorably impacting Gold sentiment.
Positive sentiment for Gold could further increase if the U.S. labor market data comes in worse than forecasted. This scenario would spark speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates more than twice this year.
МАСЛО
Oil prices (CLS10) skyrocketed to $75.74 per barrel in early European trading. This reflects an increase of $1.47 compared to Thursday’s closing, hitting the highest level in three months.
The surge is fueled by expected greater demand for heating fuel in the U.S. and Europe amid winter conditions.
Additionally, traders are anticipating that President-elect Donald Trump may impose energy sanctions on Iran and Russia, potentially disrupting oil supply.
This sentiment is likely to influence oil movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD отскочил at the onset of the European trading session after dipping to 1.02811. The pair is currently near its lowest level since November 2022, so if the U.S. labor data is worse than forecasted, there may be potential for buying activity allowing EURUSD to recover.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has also managed to reverse some of its losses after having previously dropped to 1.22667. The sell-off in the UK bond market has negatively impacted GBPUSD, pushing it to a 14-month low.
However, GBPUSD could see a positive shift if the U.S. economic data is released worse than expected, or in other words, if the NFP is below прогноз while unemployment rises.
USDJPY
USDJPY turned down to 157.626 during early European trading after having risen to 158.443. This currency pair is at its highest point in nearly six months.
Thus, should the U.S. economic data be worse than forecasted, profit-taking activities could emerge.
Насдак
Насдак отскочил early in the European session, reaching 21,327 after previously hitting 21,179 amid reports of Trump’s imminent tariff hikes.
During tonight’s trading, Nasdaq may have further rebound opportunities, especially if the U.S. labor data is worse than forecasted. In such a case, the Federal Reserve might be encouraged to adopt a more aggressive interest rate cut strategy this year.
