The price of gold has decreased to $2,625 during the European session, influenced by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, which has indicated a slowdown in interest rate cuts through 2025, leading to an increase in US bond yields. The market is now awaiting data on US factory orders, which are expected to rise, potentially strengthening the US dollar and applying downward pressure on gold prices.
On the contrary, the Nasdaq continues to advance, buoyed by positive performances from Tesla and Nvidia, which have seen significant boosts. Despite the existing challenges in the global economy, the technology sector continues to demonstrate strong growth potential.
金
Gold prices have slipped during the European trading session to $2,625 due to fundamental factors. A primary reason for gold’s decline is the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), suggesting a deceleration in interest rate reductions throughout 2025. This has led to rising yields on US government bonds, making gold, which does not offer yield, less attractive to investors.
Market participants are keenly anticipating critical catalysts from the United States, with factory orders projected to increase from 0.2% to 0.3%, indicating a strengthening manufacturing sector. If this data meets expectations, the US dollar (USD) could strengthen, supporting the Fed’s hawkish policy outlook. Conversely, a stronger USD could suppress gold prices as it becomes costlier for global buyers. However, should the data disappoint, the USD could weaken, providing an opportunity for gold to recover. Traders must pay close attention to this impending release as a market direction indicator.
油
Oil prices remain elevated near $74.37, supported by cold weather impacting major regions across the Northern Hemisphere, including North America, Europe, and Northern Asia, which is expected to increase demand for heating oil.
Additionally, rising oil prices are fueled by economic stimulus measures from Beijing aiming to revitalize China’s economy, which is facing challenges. Meanwhile, projections from Goldman Sachs suggest that Iranian oil exports could decline in the second quarter due to the imposition of stricter sanctions under the incoming Trump administration.
ユーロ/米ドル
EURUSD has continued its ascent during the European session, reaching 1.0368, distancing itself from the two-year low of 1.0224 recorded earlier. This rally is supported by significant improvements in the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) service data for December across Spain, Italy, France, Germany, and the Eurozone overall, exceeding market expectations.
Germany’s annual inflation data is projected to rise to 2.5% from the previous 2.2% tonight at 20:00 WIB, marking an acceleration in the Eurozone’s largest economy. This increase is a positive sign that inflationary pressures are beginning to rise, which may prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to consider a more hawkish monetary policy going forward.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has rebounded to around 1.2491 at the beginning of the European trading session on Monday, buoyed by mixed market sentiment. Statements from Federal Reserve officials emphasizing the need to balance inflation control with maintaining a robust labor market have put pressure on the USD, aiding in the recovery of this currency pair.
Nevertheless, the prospect of a dovish stance from the Bank of England (BoE) limits the potential short-term gains for GBPUSD. Uncertainty surrounding BoE’s monetary policy, particularly amidst a slowing UK economy, leads to cautious market sentiment regarding a more sustained strengthening of the Pound. Traders will be monitoring key economic data releases from both countries for further catalysts.
米ドル円
The USDJPY currency pair has risen to 157.76, approaching multi-month highs recorded in December. Uncertainty surrounding the precise timing of the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) interest rate hike, coupled with a risk-on market sentiment, are primary factors supporting the rise of USDJPY. Investors appear to be shunning the safe-haven Yen due to expectations that BoJ’s policies will remain dovish.
Moreover, the widening yield differential between US and Japanese bonds, spurred by hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve (Fed), further exacerbates pressure on the Yen. Higher US yields attract investors, while the lower yields of JPY become less appealing, potentially continuing the upward trend of USDJPY in the near future.
ナスダック
The Nasdaq continues to strengthen during the European session, reaching a daily high of 21,691. The sentiment driving the Nasdaq remains largely unchanged. Technology stocks are still the primary supporters, with Tesla soaring by 8% after announcing record sales in China for 2024, providing a positive boost to the market. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s stock surged over 4% following a significant increase on Thursday, reflecting a revival of positive sentiment within the tech sector. The performance of these two companies underscores optimism regarding the growth of the technology sector, despite facing global economic challenges.
