High volatility continues to loom over the market as trading begins on Thursday (December 18, 2025). The primary sentiment stems from growing optimism among market participants that the Federal Reserve (The Fed) may cut interest rates two to three times in 2026. This outlook is reinforced by the rise in the unemployment rate in the United States, which has reached 4.6%, the highest level since 2021, indicating a continuing weakness in the US labor market.
Today’s trading focus will be on the release of US inflation data for November, as this information could provide insights into the direction of The Fed’s interest rate policy for the upcoming year, potentially keeping market movements highly volatile.
Trading Central のデータ ポイントは次のとおりです。
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Bank of England (BoE) interest rate at 19:00 WIB; forecast 3.75% compared to the previous 4%
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US Inflation (Consumer Price Index/CPI) year-on-year (Nov) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 3.1% versus 3% previously
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US Core Inflation (Core CPI) year-on-year (Nov) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 3% consistent with the previous figure
金
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged significantly by $35.92 or 359 pips to $4,337.70 per troy ounce on Wednesday trading. This increase was driven by rising market optimism that The Fed will reduce interest rates at least two to three times next year, enhancing Gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset.
As European trading approaches, Gold is experiencing volatility within the range of $4,324.54 to $4,342.87 per troy ounce. Market participants are closely focused on the upcoming US inflation data, which is the primary factor influencing this volatility. With supporting fundamental sentiment still in play, Gold has the potential for further gains, although price fluctuations are expected to remain high.
油
Oil prices (CLS10) rose by $1.72 to $56.89 per barrel on Wednesday, recovering from the lowest levels seen since January 2021. This increase was prompted by US President Donald Trump’s directive to blockade Venezuelan oil tankers, thereby constraining global oil supply.
However, as European trading begins, Oil prices have come under pressure again after the US President signaled the possibility of imposing additional sanctions on Russia if it does not agree to a Russian-Ukrainian peace negotiation. This move suggests a strong US push to end the conflict, which, if successful, could reopen Russian oil supplies to the global market and reignite fears of oversupply.
Conflicting sentiments could lead to volatile movements in Oil prices, with a tendency to remain pressured during the European trading session.
ユーロ/米ドル
EURUSD experienced a drop to 1.17031 before closing with a slight decline of 65 points or 6 pips to 1.17379. This pressure came from the release of Germany’s December ifo business climate index, which fell short of expectations and earlier figures, reflecting deteriorating business sentiment in Germany.
Ahead of the European trading session, EURUSD is attempting to climb as the US dollar exhibits renewed volatility, reflecting market focus on the US inflation release later tonight.
In the absence of significant economic data releases from the Eurozone, EURUSD’s movements will likely be dominated by the dynamics of the US dollar. There is potential for EURUSD to rise again as market participants anticipate a slowdown in US inflation.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD plunged to a low of 1.33114 before managing to trim losses, closing down 448 points or 44.8 pips to 1.33690 on Wednesday, continuing to experience pressure today.
The downward pressure results from lower-than-expected inflation data from the UK (year-on-year, Nov) in comparison to forecasts and previous periods. This situation increases the likelihood of the Bank of England (BoE) making interest rate cuts today, thus the negative sentiment may continue to weigh on GBPUSD in European trading.
米ドル円
USDJPY soared by 1.249 points or 124.9 pips to 155.618 during Wednesday’s trading and continues to rise today. The strengthening is fueled by a robust US dollar following the release of non-farm payrolls (NFP) data for November, which exceeded market expectations.
On the other hand, Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has reiterated a proactive fiscal policy aimed at boosting economic growth and increasing tax revenues. This statement has sparked concerns over potential additional fiscal burdens on the Japanese public, further putting pressure on the yen.
Such sentiment could continue to drive USDJPY strength during the European trading session.
ナスダック
The Nasdaq index dropped by 127 points to 24,951 on Wednesday, reflecting ongoing sell-offs of artificial intelligence (AI)-based stocks amid concerns of an AI bubble.
As the European trading session approaches, Nasdaq is attempting to rebound while trading around the psychological level of 25,000. Market optimism surrounding potential interest rate cuts by The Fed at least two times next year, along with the possibility of short covering after steep declines, remains a positive sentiment supporting this index’s movement.
This sentiment may continue to bolster Nasdaq during European trading, although volatility should still be anticipated.
