The markets remained relatively stable at the beginning of the European trading session on Thursday (March 13, 2025). Market movements are still influenced by the release of inflation data (消費者物価指数/CPI) from the United States, which has shown a slowdown, amidst trade war risks. Tonight’s data release from the U.S. could trigger significant price movements as it may reveal insights into an economy that appears to be weakening.
Trading Central からの詳細は次のとおりです。
- U.S. producer inflation data (生産者物価指数/PPI) (前年比/Feb) at 19:30 WIB; 予報 3.4% vs Previous 3.5%
- U.S. core PPI data (前年比/Feb) at 19:30 WIB; 予報 3.5% vs Previous 3.6%
- U.S. unemployment claims data at 19:30 WIB (Mar/08); 予報 230K vs Previous 221K.
金
In line with previous Macro Overview projections, Gold (XAUUSD) prices increased early in the European session, reaching a daily high of $2,948.75 per troy ounce. Compared to Wednesday’s closing, Gold rose by $15.66, inching closer to the all-time high of $2,956.21 per troy ounce recorded on February 24.
Gold’s momentum returned following the U.S. CPI data released on Wednesday night, which indicated a growth slowdown that was lower than forecasted per Trading Central. This decline in inflation provides a greater opportunity for the Fed to consider lowering interest rates, especially with the ongoing concerns about the U.S. economy slowing down.
If the PPI data released tonight comes in lower than the forecast, alongside higher unemployment claims, Gold is likely to gain further positive sentiment.
油
Oil prices (CLS10) fell at the start of the European trading session, hitting a daily low of $67.10 per barrel. After rising for two consecutive days due to ショートカバー, negative sentiment caused prices to retreat again.
The risk of an economic slowdown in the United States is likely to reduce demand. Concurrently, OPEC+ plans to increase production, suggesting that global 供給 may rise. This sentiment will continue to overshadow Oil prices; if the U.S. data released tonight is worse than forecasted, especially regarding unemployment claims, Oil could face additional downward pressure.
ユーロ/米ドル
Profit-taking in EURUSD has continued, leading to a decline to 1.08590 at the start of the European trading session. Besides profit-taking actions, negative sentiment has also arisen from the European Union being embroiled in a trade war with the United States after President Trump imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from all countries.
Germany, being one of the largest steel exporters to the U.S., faces pressure from this trade conflict. However, if U.S. economic data released tonight comes in worse than the forecast, there is potential for EURUSD to regain some positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD has been moving 横向き within a range of 1.29732 – 1.29411 up to the early European trading session. This movement indicates that GBPUSD remains strong at its highest level in four months, as the UK is unlikely to engage in a trade conflict with the U.S.
Should the U.S. economic data released tonight be worse than the forecast, GBPUSD may benefit from positive sentiment.
米ドル円
USDJPY dipped to around 147.575 at the beginning of the European trading session after previously experiencing a two-day rise. The U.S. CPI data released yesterday has exerted pressure on USDJPY.
This pressure could intensify tonight if the U.S. economic data comes in worse than forecasted.
ナスダック
The Nasdaq index displayed volatility, fluctuating between 19,400 and 19,639 until the early European trading session. The index is still affected by negative sentiment related to the risk of an economic slowdown in the United States.
Thus, if the U.S. unemployment claims data released tonight is higher than forecasted, the Nasdaq could face additional downward pressure.
