The market continues to be overshadowed by high volatility during the European trading session on Friday (19/12/2025). The fundamental factors influencing the market remain relatively unchanged, particularly the release of the core Consumer Price Index (CPI) from the United States, which recorded a year-on-year rate of 2.6% in November, the slowest pace of decline since March 2021. This situation reinforces the view that inflationary pressures in the US are easing.
This data boosts market optimism that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may cut interest rates at least two to three times in 2026. However, market participants still believe that the Fed will maintain rates in their upcoming January meeting.
This sentiment is likely to continue affecting market movements during the US trading session. Economic data from the US is also worth monitoring this evening. Here are the details from Trading Central:
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Existing home sales in the US (year-on-year/Nov) at 22:00 WIB; forecast 3.9M vs previous 4.1M
金
Gold prices (XAUUSD) fell by $22.73 or 227 pips to $4,309.25 per troy ounce during the European trading session. Despite this correction, Gold remains supported by positive sentiment stemming from market optimism that the Fed may cut rates two to three times next year, bolstered by the slowdown in US core CPI to its lowest level since March 2021.
Tonight’s release of the Existing Home Sales data in the US should be closely observed. Should the actual data come in lower than the forecast, indicating a weakening US economy and further strengthening expectations for Fed monetary policy easing, Gold has the potential to turn around and strengthen.
油
Oil prices (CLS10) decreased by $0.25 to $55.64 per barrel during the European trading session. Price pressure emerged alongside rising prospects of achieving a peace agreement between Russia and Ukraine, following statements from US President Donald Trump that an end to the war is nearing.
If a peace deal is reached and sanctions against Russia are lifted, Russian oil supplies could flood the global market again, raising concerns about oversupply.
This negative sentiment may continue to exert pressure on oil prices in the US trading session.
ユーロ/米ドル
The EURUSD pair weakened by 179 points or 17.9 pips to 1.17032 during the European trading session. Pressure came from the statement by European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, who did not provide clear guidance regarding future monetary policy and emphasized that all options remain open, even though some other officials appear more hawkish.
Additional pressure came from the strengthening US dollar, amid market expectations that the Fed will maintain rates in January. Tonight’s economic data release from the US is also important to note. Should the actual data come in lower than forecast and trigger a weakening of the US dollar, the EURUSD pair could potentially reverse and strengthen.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD moved erratically within a range of 1.33267–1.33867 during the European trading session. Actual retail sales data for the UK (year-on-year, Nov) was recorded at 0.6%, matching the previous period but lower than the forecast of 1.4%. This condition indicates a weakening UK economy.
This sentiment may be a consideration for the Bank of England (BoE) to pursue further rate cuts, despite the previous cut being categorized as a hawkish cut, given that 4 out of 9 members of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) opted to maintain interest rates.
The release of the US Existing Home Sales data tonight should also be closely monitored. If the actual data is below the forecast and weakens the US dollar, GBPUSD may experience volatility amid conflicting sentiments, but there is potential for GBPUSD to rise again.
米ドル円
The USDJPY pair surged sharply by 1.673 points or 167 pips to 157.150 during the European trading session. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) officially raised interest rates this morning. However, the lack of guidance on the direction of BoJ policy for next year has led to a weakening of the yen.
On the other hand, the US dollar remains strong amid market expectations that the Fed will maintain rates in January 2026. Tonight’s focus will be on the release of US Existing Home Sales data. If the actual data is lower than forecast, the US dollar may weaken, creating opportunities for short-term correction on the USDJPY pair.
ナスダック
The Nasdaq index rose by 173 points to 25,392 during the European trading session. Market optimism that the Fed will cut rates two to three times next year, supported by the slowdown in US inflation, continues to be the primary driver for this index’s increase.
Tonight’s economic data release from the US should be monitored closely. If the actual data is lower than forecast and indicates a weakening US economy, optimism surrounding Fed rate cuts may strengthen, opening doors for the Nasdaq to continue its uptrend.
