The financial markets are experiencing turbulence in trading on Thursday (April 3, 2025), in reaction to the import tariff increase policies and reciprocal measures announced by US President Donald Trump. As part of this policy, Trump announced a 10% increase in import tariffs for all countries.
Furthermore, several countries are facing steeper tariff hikes due to the reciprocal policy. China, which has the largest trade surplus, now faces an import tariff of 54%, while the European Union is subjected to a 20% hike. Other Asian countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, South Korea, Japan, and India are also facing significant tariff increases.
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This situation has the potential to trigger a larger trade war and lead to a slowdown in the global economy. Market participants perceive that such a policy could slow down the US economy, leading to a weakened US Dollar.
Additionally, the release of US economic data will act as a market driver this evening. Here are some key indicators from Trading Central:
- The weekly unemployment claims data for the US will be released at 19:30 WIB; forecast 226K vs previously 224K
- The March ISM services purchasing managers’ index will be released at 21:00 WIB: forecast 53 vs previously 53.5
GOLD
The price of Gold has retreated after hitting an all-time high of $3,167 per troy ounce. It has dropped back to $3,101 per troy ounce, likely due to profit-taking, as the fundamental conditions still support upward movement.
The demand for Gold as a safe haven remains high due to the escalating trade war risks and economic slowdown concerns. Additionally, the downward pressure on the US Dollar could further enhance Gold’s performance.
If the US economic data released tonight is worse than the forecast, Gold could receive additional positive sentiment.
OIL
Concerns over a global economic slowdown have caused Oil prices to plummet to $68.20 per barrel, down $2.46 from Wednesday’s trading session.
As the global economy slows, demand for Oil is expected to decrease. This negative sentiment is likely to influence Oil movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD surged to 1.11465 at the start of the European trading session after briefly falling to 1.08051 earlier. Compared to the previous trading close, EURUSD increased by 2.888 points (288.8 pips).
EURUSD continues to rise even though the eurozone data indicates that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for February grew by 3% year-on-year (YoY), lower than the prior month’s 3.4% YoY growth.
This suggests that market participants are reacting to the potential slowdown in the US economy, which is placing pressure on the US Dollar. If the US economic data released tonight falls short of the forecast, EURUSD could receive additional positive momentum.
GBPUSD
Similar to EURUSD, this currency pair also jumped over 200 pips to 1.32067 at the start of the European trading session. GBPUSD rose due to the UK only being subjected to a 10% import tariff.
Previously, the UK government expected a 20% increase in tariffs. This sentiment is likely to influence GBPUSD movements in the European trading session.
This positive sentiment is expected to bolster GBPUSD’s performance in tonight’s trading.
USDJPY
USDJPY fell to 146.259, marking its lowest level in the past six months. Compared to the close of Wednesday’s trading, USDJPY dropped nearly 300 pips.
The decline in USDJPY is attributed to the widening risks of a trade war, which could hamper US economic growth, creating negative sentiment for USDJPY. If the US economic data tonight is worse than the forecast, USDJPY could face further pressure.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index remains under pressure at the start of the European trading session, close to its lowest point in seven months. The escalating trade war risks are adding negative sentiment to global stock indices.
The pressure could intensify if the US economic data released tonight is lower than the forecast, leading to further pressure on the Nasdaq.
