Pediafx – Bank Indonesia (BI) is expected to prioritize stabilization measures rather than raising interest rates in order to maintain the stability of the Indonesian Rupiah exchange rate.
According to Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia’s Macro Tracker titled “Macro Tracker – Jackson Hole remarks: Signal of another FFR hike,” economist Rully Arya Wisnubroto from Mirae Sekuritas stated that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell mentioned that inflation in the United States has started to decline. However, the inflation level still remains above the comfort level set by the Fed.
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Based on the latest signals from the Federal Reserve and the trajectory of US economic data, particularly regarding inflation and the labor situation, it is anticipated that the Fed will choose to raise interest rates as part of additional policy tightening measures while continuing quantitative tightening strategies.
In analyzing the drivers behind the development of core PCE inflation, the Federal Reserve assesses three main components, including inflation related to goods, housing services, and other services (non-housing services). Inflation in durable goods has experienced a significant decline.
Regarding housing inflation, the impact of monetary policy has also begun to diminish. As for non-housing services, which account for half of the core PCE inflation calculation, they have shown a tendency towards stagnation since the onset of monetary tightening.
Last Friday, Rully explained, the US Dollar Index (DXY) surpassed the 104 level for the first time since May, reaching 104.08, the highest level in approximately 3 months. At the same time, the spread between 2-year and 10-year UST yields widened. “We expect Powell’s statement over the weekend to have an impact on the domestic market at the beginning of this week.”
He mentioned that the rupiah weakened by 0.3% on Friday, closing at Rp15,295 against the US dollar (down 1.4% month-to-date). “We believe that Bank Indonesia (BI) will not use interest rate policy to stabilize the rupiah from the current pressures but will continue to implement stabilization policies.”
