The market activity at the start of the European session on Thursday (January 23, 2025) appears to be more stable compared to recent days. However, significant movements may still occur later this evening, as market participants await statements or policies from U.S. President Donald Trump.
GOLD
In line with previous Macro Overview forecasts, Gold prices fell during early European trading, hitting a daily low of $2,740.89 per troy ounce. This represents a decrease of around $15 or 150 pips compared to Wednesday’s closing trades.
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The decline can be attributed to profit taking following a three-day surge in Gold prices that amounted to a total of $55. Gold continues to receive positive support from rising demand for safe haven assets amid Trump’s proposed increase of import tariffs from Canada, Mexico, and China. Trump has also threatened sanctions and potentially raising tariffs on Russia if it does not cease its military operations in Ukraine.
Trump’s statements may induce political or economic uncertainty, which could lead to a positive sentiment for Gold. Moreover, if the U.S. unemployment claims data released at 20:30 WIB exceeds the forecast of 219,000 claims, this positive sentiment may strengthen further.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) traded sideways within the range of $75.00 – $75.70 per barrel at the beginning of the European trading session after previously declining for five consecutive days.
Oil prices are under pressure due to Trump’s plans to boost oil production in the United States. The market recently speculated on the possibility of the Russia-Ukraine conflict coming to an end under Trump’s administration, which may lead to an influx of Russian oil supply back into the market. This adds further negative sentiment towards Oil, which is likely to persist during tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
EURUSD reversed to rise to 1.04181 at the start of the European session after previously dipping to 1.03898. This currency pair may experience additional positive sentiment if the U.S. unemployment claims data released tonight exceeds the forecast.
However, volatility is expected to remain high, especially if Trump issues any new statements.
GBPUSD
Similarly to EURUSD, this currency pair increased to 1.23305 after falling to 1.22931 earlier. The trading pattern of GBPUSD tonight is anticipated to mirror that of EURUSD, as observed in recent days.
USDJPY
USDJPY subsequently declined to 156.203 after rising to 156.749. The volatility of this pair remains pronounced, affected not only by the new U.S. administration under President Trump but also by market anticipation regarding whether the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates this upcoming Friday.
These sentiments will continue to impact USDJPY, alongside the U.S. unemployment claims data. A release higher than the forecast could put further pressure on USDJPY.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index sharply dropped to 21,855 at the beginning of the European session after experiencing a four-day rally that nearly reached an all-time high.
Given the prevailing uncertainty following the presidential transition in the U.S. and the index’s elevated position, it is likely that Nasdaq may face profit taking in tonight’s trading session.
