The pressure on the United States dollar continues as European trading opens on Friday (14/15/2025). As previously mentioned, President Donald Trump has signed an executive order on reciprocal trade policies on Thursday local time.
With this policy, if other countries increase their import tariffs on American goods, Trump will retaliate by raising tariffs on those countries as well. However, he noted that the incoming Secretary of Commerce, Howard Lutnick, will lead a study to assess the appropriate tariffs. This policy, which is not set to take effect anytime soon, has mitigated the risk of a trade war, reducing the appeal of the US dollar as a safe haven asset.
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This sentiment is likely to affect market movements in tonight’s trading, alongside the release of economic data from the US. Here are the details from Trading Central:
- US Retail Sales (month-on-month/January) at 20:30 WIB; forecast 0% vs previous 0.4%
- US Industrial Production (month-on-month/January) at 21:15 WIB; forecast 0.3% vs previous 0.9%.
GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) surged to $2,938.46 per troy ounce at the start of the European session. Compared to Thursday’s close, gold increased by $10.22 or 102.2 pips, inching closer to the all-time high of $2,942 per troy ounce reached last Tuesday.
The weakness in the US dollar has positively impacted gold prices. Moreover, the global economy is still fraught with uncertainties, leading investors to flock to gold. Furthermore, central banks continue to accumulate gold as part of their foreign reserves. These two sentiments are continuously boosting gold’s performance.
In today’s trading, if the US economic data comes in lower than the forecast, gold prices may gain further positive sentiment.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) are moving in a volatile range between $71.25 – $71.72 per barrel as European trading kicks off, after rebounding from a six-week low on Thursday.
Trump’s reciprocal policy, which is not set to take effect soon, has reduced the risks of a significant trade war, creating a positive sentiment for oil that is likely to influence movements in tonight’s trading.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair climbed at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching 1.04878, the highest level in three weeks. The weakness in the US dollar propelled this currency pair upward on Thursday, marking a three-day winning streak.
This evening, if US economic data is released lower than the forecast, the EURUSD pair could gain additional positive sentiment.
GBPUSD
Similar to the EURUSD, this currency pair continued to rise at the start of the European trading session, having increased more than 120 pips on Thursday. Today, GBPUSD hit 1.25959, the highest level in six weeks.
There is potential for GBPUSD to keep rising, as sentiment could become increasingly positive if US economic data is released lower than the forecast.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair declined at the beginning of the European session, reaching 152.383. Compared to Thursday’s close, USDJPY fell by 416 points (41.6 pips). The US dollar is losing its appeal after Trump announced that the reciprocal policy will not be implemented anytime soon, placing pressure on USDJPY.
This pressure could intensify if US economic data tonight is released lower than the forecast.
Nasdaq
As anticipated in the previous Macro Overview, the Nasdaq achieved a record high of 22,160 at the beginning of the European trading session before experiencing a correction. This surpasses the previous record of 22,151 set on December 16.
Market participants believe a substantial trade war is not likely to occur soon, providing a positive sentiment for the stock index. This sentiment is expected to continue influencing the Nasdaq’s movements in tonight’s trading.
