Market volatility began to increase at the start of European trading on Friday (March 14, 2025). The upcoming release of economic data from the United States tonight, alongside developments in import tariffs, will be closely monitored.
The US is set to release the consumer sentiment data for March at 21:00 WIB, with a forecast from Trading Central suggesting a figure of 63.2, down from last month’s 64.7.
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GOLD
Gold (XAUUSD) prices continued to rise at the start of the European session, reaching an all-time high of $3,004.87 per troy ounce. This marks a new historical peak.
The rise in gold prices has been bolstered by increasing concerns regarding the trade war after US President Donald Trump expressed frustration with the European Union’s response to raised tariffs on American whiskey. He has threatened to impose tariffs as high as 200% on alcoholic beverages from Europe.
This situation has heightened gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset, driving its price up further. The sentiment around gold could potentially strengthen if tonight’s consumer sentiment data from the US comes in lower than the forecast, indicating deteriorating economic conditions as perceived by American consumers.
OIL
Oil (CLS10) prices rose during early European trading, hitting a daily high of $67.46 per barrel. However, the risks associated with the escalating trade war could negatively impact oil sentiment.
Such developments could hinder global economic growth, which in turn might reduce oil demand.
EURUSD
EURUSD reversed and climbed to 1.08752 at the start of European trading, after dipping to 1.08307 earlier in the morning. The rise of EURUSD is noteworthy given the underlying negative sentiment from the broadening trade war risks.
Thus, there is potential for a reversal in the EURUSD movement in tonight’s trading session.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD experienced a decline at the beginning of the European trading session, reaching a daily low of 1.29171. This drop came after the release of disappointing economic growth data from the UK, which fell short of forecasts.
UK economic growth (Gross Domestic Product) for January was reported at -0.1% month-on-month (MoM), below the Trading Central forecast of 0.1% and last month’s figure of 0.4%. Additionally, industrial production for the same period was reported at -0.8% MoM, worse than the forecast of -0.3% and down from the previous month’s 0.5%.
This data indicates a weakening UK economy at the start of the year, allowing the Bank of England (BoE) some room to consider further interest rate cuts. This sentiment has contributed to the negativity surrounding GBPUSD.
USDJPY
USDJPY advanced in early European trading, reaching a daily high of 149.008. Compared to Thursday’s close, USDJPY has risen by 1300 points (130 pips).
The high volatility in USDJPY reflects market participants weighing the current global dynamics, particularly the ongoing trade war. This may press on global economic growth, leading to increased demand for safe haven assets. Both the US dollar and yen carry safe haven attributes, resulting in their volatile movements.
If tonight’s US economic data comes in lower than forecasted, there is a possibility that USDJPY could face downward pressure.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq index climbed to 19,459 at the start of the European session after a significant drop that brought it close to a six-month low. Nonetheless, the broader trade war risks create negative sentiment for the Nasdaq.
Should the US consumer sentiment data released tonight be lower than forecasted, it could exacerbate the pressure on the Nasdaq, as previously noted, indicating that consumers perceive worsening economic conditions.
