The stir in the financial markets caused by the reciprocal policies of President Donald Trump has started to diminish as trading progresses on Friday (April 4, 2025). Despite this calming effect, high volatility continues, with the potential to persist throughout today’s trading session. This is particularly relevant as we anticipate the release of labor market data, including the non-farm payrolls (NFP) from the United States later tonight.
GOLD
Profit-taking actions in Gold (XAUUSD) are still ongoing, leading it to a temporary dip to $3,087 per troy ounce before recovering back above $3,100 per troy ounce.
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The escalating risks from trade wars and a slowing global economy continue to enhance Gold’s appeal as a safe haven asset. Consequently, a positive sentiment lingers around Gold, although profit-taking actions are also casting a shadow during the European trading session.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) plummeted by over $4 to $66.62 per barrel during trading on Thursday, with continued pressure evident today.
The drop in oil prices followed the agreement of eight OPEC+ members to increase production by more than 400,000 barrels per day. The looming threat of a slowing global economy due to trade disputes has created significant pressure on Oil, which will likely be felt during the European trading session.
EURUSD
EURUSD surged by 1,933 points (193.3 pips) to 1.10510 on Thursday, even reaching a peak of 1.11465. EURUSD marked a six-month high as market participants perceive that wider trade conflicts threaten to dampen US economic growth significantly. This situation may push the Fed to lower interest rates more rapidly, further weakening the US dollar.
In the European trading session, the release of German factory orders at 13:00 WIB could serve as a catalyst for EURUSD. The Trading Central forecast indicates a growth of 4.5% month-on-month (MoM) in factory orders for February, compared to a previous decline of 7% MoM.
A figure exceeding the forecast could bolster positive sentiment for EURUSD.
GBPUSD
GBPUSD surged by 946 points (94.6 pips) to 1.31006 during trading on Thursday. In addition to the US dollar being under pressure, the British pound received a boost as the UK is only subject to a 10% import tariff, down from the previously anticipated 20% increase.
This sentiment will likely continue to affect GBPUSD movements during the European trading session.
USDJPY
USDJPY fell by 3,210 points (321 pips) to 146.043 during Thursday’s trading, marking a six-month low. This movement highlights the significant pressure on the dollar due to the risk of a slowing US economy.
As the US economy decelerates, the Fed may cut interest rates more swiftly, while the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is in a phase of raising rates. Such circumstances could narrow the interest rate differential between the two, putting further downward pressure on USDJPY.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq dropped by 1,304 index points on Thursday and subsequently fell by an additional 185 index points to 18,462 in today’s trading. This level is the lowest seen since September 9, 2024.
Stock indices are experiencing significant distress due to Trump’s new policies, which could trigger a slowdown in the global economy. This sentiment will likely continue to influence Nasdaq’s movements during the European trading session.
