The economic data released from the United States on Thursday indicated a lower-than-expected growth in retail sales, accompanied by an increase in unemployment claims.
This release is expected to be a significant market mover during the European trading session on Friday (January 17, 2025).
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GOLD
Gold prices (XAUUSD) have risen for three straight days, closing Thursday’s trading at $2,714.11 per troy ounce. Over these three days, the price of Gold has increased by more than $51, or 510 pips, reaching its highest level in a month.
Recent US economic data has consistently fallen short of forecasts from Trading Central, leading market participants to be optimistic about the Federal Reserve potentially cutting interest rates twice this year.
This sentiment is likely to continue influencing Gold’s movement during the European trading session.
OIL
Oil prices (CLS10) dropped by $1.75 to $78.73 per barrel in Thursday’s trading due to profit-taking. Previously, Oil had surged to a six-month high following US sanctions on the Russian crude oil industry and a decline in US stock levels.
Given this context, the outlook for Oil remains positive as trading resumes in Europe.
EURUSD
The EURUSD pair traded within a narrow range before slightly rising to close Thursday at 1.03003.
Considering the EURUSD position remains near its lowest point since November 2022, alongside a series of US economic data underperforming forecasts, there’s a significant chance for a rebound today.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD also exhibited volatility during Thursday’s trading but ended with a marginal decline at 1.22355. This currency pair faced pressure after a member of the Bank of England (BoE) suggested that interest rates might need to be cut 5 to 6 times this year.
This sentiment is expected to continue impacting GBPUSD’s movement in the European session, in addition to the UK retail sales data set to be released at 14:00 WIB. The forecast from Trading Central indicates a 0.2% month-on-month growth in retail sales for December, matching the previous month’s growth. Any data release falling short of these expectations could put additional pressure on GBPUSD.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair fell more than 1,300 points (130 pips) to 155.108 during Thursday’s session, following a similarly significant drop the day before.
Weaker-than-expected US economic data put pressure on the dollar, while the yen strengthened after the Governor of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), Kazuo Ueda, indicated that interest rates would be increased if economic conditions and inflation improve.
This sentiment will also play a role in shaping USDJPY’s movements during the European trading session.
Nasdaq
The Nasdaq showed volatility in Thursday’s trading, rising to 21,565 before reversing course to 21,213. A series of US economic data below forecasts this week has led market participants to feel optimistic about the possibility of the Fed lowering interest rates twice this year. This could create a positive sentiment for the Nasdaq during the European trading session.
However, Nasdaq’s movements are likely to remain volatile as market participants await the first steps from Donald Trump following his inauguration as the 47th President of the United States next Monday.
